Outbreak of Coronavirus

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justine Elitist Beer Lover
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jkahless Custom Title
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So with the shortage of sterile swabs for tests, is there anything conceptually wrong with sterilizing q tips in high proof alcohol and then baking it off in a low temp autoclave?
DukeofNuke FREE RADICAL
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TOS
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dv
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TOS posted:


I haven't cancelled mine yet. It's scheduled for June, which seems like it might be far enough out to be safe. And the tickets are refundable until a week before.
TOS
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dv
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ukimalefu last throes
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maurvir Steamed meat popsicle
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TOS posted:
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The last frame probably explains why the GOP isn't concerned about the Corona virus - they are secretly looking forward to it.
maurvir Steamed meat popsicle
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TOS
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macnuke Afar
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TOS posted:

Coming to a U.S. big city near you soon
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
juice posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.

I trust them about as much as I trust anything from this regime.

Here's the problem with what TOS wrote: humans are awful at making up statistics.

While politicians might be able to persuade the scientists working for them to try to fudge their reported numbers up- or downward (depending on which way is more politically advantageous), the scientists will know that any such longterm adjustments eventually can be revealed. It might require some heavy duty analysis and it might seem "rather" random especially to anyone outside the topic being analyzed, but just being "rather" random will NOT be good enough to hide such adjustments. If the manipulations are truly random then almost certainly they will NOT satisfy the desires of those politicians applying pressure.

The loss of trust in a dishonest scientist is tough to live down because afterward any public submission by that scientist will be viewed with suspicion if not simply ignored as a waste of time especially considering the volume of material that gets published.


government entities, public and private corporations, the stock market, hell, pretty much everything and everything in that country have a long and thoroughly documented history of lying their asses off about data

i treasure your incredible naive view that it's hard to falsify statistics, i really do, but it has no relevance at all in a place like china

Apparently in his ignorance TOS just does not understand the difference.

Sure, politicians lie. Perhaps proportionately just as many scientists lie but usually not while wearing their science hats.

To submit any paper to any REAL science journal (and unfortunately there are a lot of journals with sciencey-SOUNDING titles), unlike such liars above they must submit them including numbers and/or--at least in fields where numeric analysis is less important--enough details of their experiments such that fellow scientists in their fields at least can mentally replicate the reported experiments if not in reality.

Recall Dr. He who attempted IN CHINA to produce babies which--via gene therapy upon the fertilized egg--should have produced people who had at least a slightly but significantly better chance at resisting HIV infections? Also recall that he got caught lying in his published paper because other scientists in genetic research were unable to replicate his specific gene editing.
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TOS posted:

Love the space-helmet thingies
DukeofNuke FREE RADICAL
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Kentucky distillery begins producing hand sanitizer

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https://www.lex18.com/news/coronavirus/ ... -sanitizer
jkahless Custom Title
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DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
juice posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.

I trust them about as much as I trust anything from this regime.

Here's the problem with what TOS wrote: humans are awful at making up statistics.

While politicians might be able to persuade the scientists working for them to try to fudge their reported numbers up- or downward (depending on which way is more politically advantageous), the scientists will know that any such longterm adjustments eventually can be revealed. It might require some heavy duty analysis and it might seem "rather" random especially to anyone outside the topic being analyzed, but just being "rather" random will NOT be good enough to hide such adjustments. If the manipulations are truly random then almost certainly they will NOT satisfy the desires of those politicians applying pressure.

The loss of trust in a dishonest scientist is tough to live down because afterward any public submission by that scientist will be viewed with suspicion if not simply ignored as a waste of time especially considering the volume of material that gets published.


government entities, public and private corporations, the stock market, hell, pretty much everything and everything in that country have a long and thoroughly documented history of lying their asses off about data

i treasure your incredible naive view that it's hard to falsify statistics, i really do, but it has no relevance at all in a place like china

Apparently in his ignorance TOS just does not understand the difference.

Sure, politicians lie. Perhaps proportionately just as many scientists lie but usually not while wearing their science hats.

To submit any paper to any REAL science journal (and unfortunately there are a lot of journals with sciencey-SOUNDING titles), unlike such liars above they must submit them including numbers and/or--at least in fields where numeric analysis is less important--enough details of their experiments such that fellow scientists in their fields at least can mentally replicate the reported experiments if not in reality.

Recall Dr. He who attempted IN CHINA to produce babies which--via gene therapy upon the fertilized egg--should have produced people who had at least a slightly but significantly better chance at resisting HIV infections? Also recall that he got caught lying in his published paper because other scientists in genetic research were unable to replicate his specific gene editing.

You have an overinflated view of scientific publications. Few people are interested in duplicating results, because they don’t get any money or recognition for it. There are too many junk papers out there to count.
jkahless posted:
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
juice posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.

I trust them about as much as I trust anything from this regime.

Here's the problem with what TOS wrote: humans are awful at making up statistics.

While politicians might be able to persuade the scientists working for them to try to fudge their reported numbers up- or downward (depending on which way is more politically advantageous), the scientists will know that any such longterm adjustments eventually can be revealed. It might require some heavy duty analysis and it might seem "rather" random especially to anyone outside the topic being analyzed, but just being "rather" random will NOT be good enough to hide such adjustments. If the manipulations are truly random then almost certainly they will NOT satisfy the desires of those politicians applying pressure.

The loss of trust in a dishonest scientist is tough to live down because afterward any public submission by that scientist will be viewed with suspicion if not simply ignored as a waste of time especially considering the volume of material that gets published.


government entities, public and private corporations, the stock market, hell, pretty much everything and everything in that country have a long and thoroughly documented history of lying their asses off about data

i treasure your incredible naive view that it's hard to falsify statistics, i really do, but it has no relevance at all in a place like china

Apparently in his ignorance TOS just does not understand the difference.

Sure, politicians lie. Perhaps proportionately just as many scientists lie but usually not while wearing their science hats.

To submit any paper to any REAL science journal (and unfortunately there are a lot of journals with sciencey-SOUNDING titles), unlike such liars above they must submit them including numbers and/or--at least in fields where numeric analysis is less important--enough details of their experiments such that fellow scientists in their fields at least can mentally replicate the reported experiments if not in reality.

Recall Dr. He who attempted IN CHINA to produce babies which--via gene therapy upon the fertilized egg--should have produced people who had at least a slightly but significantly better chance at resisting HIV infections? Also recall that he got caught lying in his published paper because other scientists in genetic research were unable to replicate his specific gene editing.

You have an overinflated view of scientific publications. Few people are interested in duplicating results, because they don’t get any money or recognition for it. There are too many junk papers out there to count.


Easier method of finding flawed papers - After five years see which ones get cited in other papers which produce useful things. The faked studies won't ever produce anything useful because they can't.
ukimalefu last throes
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all these countries doing "self isolation" "quarantines" "social distancing", whatever you call it, and wearing masks, etc, all for the benefit of everybody...

VERY impressive, if you ask me

even if there are still people everywhere doing stupid things, because humans are like that
Mustapha Mond Daring to be stupid
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Some kids in my area decided to film themselves coughing on produce in the supermarket.
obvs To hell with toilet paper. I own a bidet
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They won't think that's funny when they start being charged with murder for it.
ukimalefu last throes
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TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20036178v1

Quote:
In the case of China, it is estimated that more than 700.000 cases of COVID-19 actually occurred instead of the confirmed 80,932 cases as of 3/13/2020.

ukimalefu posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20036178v1

Quote:
In the case of China, it is estimated that more than 700.000 cases of COVID-19 actually occurred instead of the confirmed 80,932 cases as of 3/13/2020.

:shrug: "estimated".

Let's see what those authors are accusing: that China has understimated their number of cases not by a trivial amount but by reporting only 1/9th the country's cases of COVID-19.

Well, then GOOD NEWS EVERYONE: while still significantly more deadly than the seasonal flu (0.1%), COVID-19 in China had a 0.47% fatality rate than their currently reported 4.01%.

Unless, of course, China ALSO underreported their number of deaths. Maybe instead of their currently reported 3,259 that number should also be 9 times higher?

Here's one problem: they used South Korea as their model to get their estimate of 700 K cases in China. South Korea's fatality rate from COVID-19: 1.2%.

Sooo...China UNDERreported their number of cases of COVID-19 (81 K vs. 700 K) while OVERreported their number of fatalities (3,259 vs. 976 [from 1.2% of 81 K])?

For completeness: 1.2% of 700 K is 8,400, so 3,259 would be underreporting but only by a factor of 2.6 times.

And, of course, there are lots of problems with using South Korea as a model in the first place. While South Korea did have the disadvantages of being one of the first countries in which COVID-19 appeared outside of China AND having gotten it while there was still a lot not understood about COVID-19, it did have the advantage of jumping on the infection problem very quickly and decisively. Some have pointed to the South Korea's previous experiences with SARS and MERS as part of the reason for the latter.
TOS
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DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
juice posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.

I trust them about as much as I trust anything from this regime.

Here's the problem with what TOS wrote: humans are awful at making up statistics.

While politicians might be able to persuade the scientists working for them to try to fudge their reported numbers up- or downward (depending on which way is more politically advantageous), the scientists will know that any such longterm adjustments eventually can be revealed. It might require some heavy duty analysis and it might seem "rather" random especially to anyone outside the topic being analyzed, but just being "rather" random will NOT be good enough to hide such adjustments. If the manipulations are truly random then almost certainly they will NOT satisfy the desires of those politicians applying pressure.

The loss of trust in a dishonest scientist is tough to live down because afterward any public submission by that scientist will be viewed with suspicion if not simply ignored as a waste of time especially considering the volume of material that gets published.


government entities, public and private corporations, the stock market, hell, pretty much everything and everything in that country have a long and thoroughly documented history of lying their asses off about data

i treasure your incredible naive view that it's hard to falsify statistics, i really do, but it has no relevance at all in a place like china

Apparently in his ignorance TOS just does not understand the difference.

Sure, politicians lie. Perhaps proportionately just as many scientists lie but usually not while wearing their science hats.

To submit any paper to any REAL science journal (and unfortunately there are a lot of journals with sciencey-SOUNDING titles), unlike such liars above they must submit them including numbers and/or--at least in fields where numeric analysis is less important--enough details of their experiments such that fellow scientists in their fields at least can mentally replicate the reported experiments if not in reality.

Recall Dr. He who attempted IN CHINA to produce babies which--via gene therapy upon the fertilized egg--should have produced people who had at least a slightly but significantly better chance at resisting HIV infections? Also recall that he got caught lying in his published paper because other scientists in genetic research were unable to replicate his specific gene editing.


oh look, another person with cherished faith in chinese numbers, how adorable, with an insult thrown in

if only i hadn't lived there for a number of years, moved freely in the worlds of journalism, science, technology and especially governance, and gained a thorough understanding of just how deeply, catastrophically corrupt the country is, and oh yeah if only i wasn't in touch with people there right stick fiddling now who are telling me about long lineups outside hospitals, of people dropping dead in the streets, or of longstanding concerns of a corrupt relationship between the chinese government and the world health organization

yes, let's pretend the place isn't so corrupt that a lab tech was arrested not too long ago for surreptitiously selling test animals to local meat markets, or that expensive lab tech routinely goes missing

yeah yeah no it's all good, let's just assume that china as a nation-state is organized along lines similar to those in western countries, let's assume that junk and fraudulent science isn't a problem even in the west, and let's further just insult people who know what the hell they're talking about

great plan!
macnuke Afar
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don't believe the 700K.

I still think that would be a low number.
TOS
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even in china they know not to trust official numbers on anything ... there's an old joke that whatever the official statement is, you multiply the numbers by at least ten in the bad direction before you start getting near the truth

believe me i want the official claims to be true, i really do
jkahless Custom Title
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You want to find out what's going on, get a premium tinder account and set your location to Wuhan, assuming the Chinese government hasn't locked down Tinder yet since people are using it to get around media blackouts.
DukeofNuke FREE RADICAL
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But, WE can trust our leaders

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Lets all do the "Fauci Facepalm"!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1241184095302008835
DukeofNuke FREE RADICAL
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Welp ... it's here!

Quote:
BREATHITT COUNTY, Ky. (WYMT) - In Saturday's news conference, Governor Beshear confirmed a coronavirus case out of Breathitt County.

Appalachian Regional Healthcare confirmed in a statement the patient was tested at Hazard ARH.

The statement said this was the first patient in the 13-hospital ARH system to test positive for COVID-19.
https://www.wymt.com/content/news/Gov-B ... 98251.html

TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
juice posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.

I trust them about as much as I trust anything from this regime.

Here's the problem with what TOS wrote: humans are awful at making up statistics.

While politicians might be able to persuade the scientists working for them to try to fudge their reported numbers up- or downward (depending on which way is more politically advantageous), the scientists will know that any such longterm adjustments eventually can be revealed. It might require some heavy duty analysis and it might seem "rather" random especially to anyone outside the topic being analyzed, but just being "rather" random will NOT be good enough to hide such adjustments. If the manipulations are truly random then almost certainly they will NOT satisfy the desires of those politicians applying pressure.

The loss of trust in a dishonest scientist is tough to live down because afterward any public submission by that scientist will be viewed with suspicion if not simply ignored as a waste of time especially considering the volume of material that gets published.


government entities, public and private corporations, the stock market, hell, pretty much everything and everything in that country have a long and thoroughly documented history of lying their asses off about data

i treasure your incredible naive view that it's hard to falsify statistics, i really do, but it has no relevance at all in a place like china

Apparently in his ignorance TOS just does not understand the difference.

Sure, politicians lie. Perhaps proportionately just as many scientists lie but usually not while wearing their science hats.

To submit any paper to any REAL science journal (and unfortunately there are a lot of journals with sciencey-SOUNDING titles), unlike such liars above they must submit them including numbers and/or--at least in fields where numeric analysis is less important--enough details of their experiments such that fellow scientists in their fields at least can mentally replicate the reported experiments if not in reality.

Recall Dr. He who attempted IN CHINA to produce babies which--via gene therapy upon the fertilized egg--should have produced people who had at least a slightly but significantly better chance at resisting HIV infections? Also recall that he got caught lying in his published paper because other scientists in genetic research were unable to replicate his specific gene editing.


oh look, another person with cherished faith in chinese numbers, how adorable, with an insult thrown in

if only i hadn't lived there for a number of years, moved freely in the worlds of journalism, science, technology and especially governance, and gained a thorough understanding of just how deeply, catastrophically corrupt the country is, and oh yeah if only i wasn't in touch with people there right stick fiddling now who are telling me about long lineups outside hospitals, of people dropping dead in the streets, or of longstanding concerns of a corrupt relationship between the chinese government and the world health organization

yes, let's pretend the place isn't so corrupt that a lab tech was arrested not too long ago for surreptitiously selling test animals to local meat markets, or that expensive lab tech routinely goes missing

yeah yeah no it's all good, let's just assume that china as a nation-state is organized along lines similar to those in western countries, let's assume that junk and fraudulent science isn't a problem even in the west, and let's further just insult people who know what the hell they're talking about

great plan!

I just watched NOVA: Mysteries of Sleep. Yeah, it was broadcast a while back and it took me a few weeks to catch up.

Among many interesting things, it included a short segment about how in the study of sleep scientists have found that apparently upon waking the body basically has flushed out any excess of adinosine but then it begins to produce it. Adinosine acts as a sleep inducer upon specific receptors on nerve cells, so the more adinosine in your body, the more sleepy you feel. Caffeine will temporarily bind to these receptors which is why it can be effective for a while to help keep you awake.

What does the above have to with what I wrote about previously in this string? Nuthin', which was my reaction to TOS' post above.

That Mainland China is an authoritarian hell made even more effective in its control over its citizens by modern tech is a frightening prospect even from afar, but what I wrote about were SCIENCE reports. For these the Chinese authoritarians are in a bind: they want to make China look good, but there are lots of topics which--if fully and properly studied--will make China look bad. The authoritarians have at their fingertips tons of personal data covering the entirety of the population in China, but they also would never allow sociologists access to such data for general publication because such analyses will almost certainly reveal many bad aspects in the life of the average citizen in China.

So a study upon urban crowding? 禁止的 (forbidden). Paleontology findings? All celebrated with welcoming arms.

I'm sure that had Dr. He been successful in his experiments then he might have found equally welcoming arms from the Chinese authorities despite the immediate worldwide condemnation from outside of China. I suspect that the severity of his punishment for science fraud had a significant additional factor of embarrassing China in the scientific world.
TOS
User avatar
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
juice posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.

I trust them about as much as I trust anything from this regime.

Here's the problem with what TOS wrote: humans are awful at making up statistics.

While politicians might be able to persuade the scientists working for them to try to fudge their reported numbers up- or downward (depending on which way is more politically advantageous), the scientists will know that any such longterm adjustments eventually can be revealed. It might require some heavy duty analysis and it might seem "rather" random especially to anyone outside the topic being analyzed, but just being "rather" random will NOT be good enough to hide such adjustments. If the manipulations are truly random then almost certainly they will NOT satisfy the desires of those politicians applying pressure.

The loss of trust in a dishonest scientist is tough to live down because afterward any public submission by that scientist will be viewed with suspicion if not simply ignored as a waste of time especially considering the volume of material that gets published.


government entities, public and private corporations, the stock market, hell, pretty much everything and everything in that country have a long and thoroughly documented history of lying their asses off about data

i treasure your incredible naive view that it's hard to falsify statistics, i really do, but it has no relevance at all in a place like china

Apparently in his ignorance TOS just does not understand the difference.

Sure, politicians lie. Perhaps proportionately just as many scientists lie but usually not while wearing their science hats.

To submit any paper to any REAL science journal (and unfortunately there are a lot of journals with sciencey-SOUNDING titles), unlike such liars above they must submit them including numbers and/or--at least in fields where numeric analysis is less important--enough details of their experiments such that fellow scientists in their fields at least can mentally replicate the reported experiments if not in reality.

Recall Dr. He who attempted IN CHINA to produce babies which--via gene therapy upon the fertilized egg--should have produced people who had at least a slightly but significantly better chance at resisting HIV infections? Also recall that he got caught lying in his published paper because other scientists in genetic research were unable to replicate his specific gene editing.


oh look, another person with cherished faith in chinese numbers, how adorable, with an insult thrown in

if only i hadn't lived there for a number of years, moved freely in the worlds of journalism, science, technology and especially governance, and gained a thorough understanding of just how deeply, catastrophically corrupt the country is, and oh yeah if only i wasn't in touch with people there right stick fiddling now who are telling me about long lineups outside hospitals, of people dropping dead in the streets, or of longstanding concerns of a corrupt relationship between the chinese government and the world health organization

yes, let's pretend the place isn't so corrupt that a lab tech was arrested not too long ago for surreptitiously selling test animals to local meat markets, or that expensive lab tech routinely goes missing

yeah yeah no it's all good, let's just assume that china as a nation-state is organized along lines similar to those in western countries, let's assume that junk and fraudulent science isn't a problem even in the west, and let's further just insult people who know what the hell they're talking about

great plan!

I just watched NOVA: Mysteries of Sleep. Yeah, it was broadcast a while back and it took me a few weeks to catch up.

Among many interesting things, it included a short segment about how in the study of sleep scientists have found that apparently upon waking the body basically has flushed out any excess of adinosine but then it begins to produce it. Adinosine acts as a sleep inducer upon specific receptors on nerve cells, so the more adinosine in your body, the more sleepy you feel. Caffeine will temporarily bind to these receptors which is why it can be effective for a while to help keep you awake.

What does the above have to with what I wrote about previously in this string? Nuthin', which was my reaction to TOS' post above.

That Mainland China is an authoritarian hell made even more effective in its control over its citizens by modern tech is a frightening prospect even from afar, but what I wrote about were SCIENCE reports. For these the Chinese authoritarians are in a bind: they want to make China look good, but there are lots of topics which--if fully and properly studied--will make China look bad. The authoritarians have at their fingertips tons of personal data covering the entirety of the population in China, but they also would never allow sociologists access to such data for general publication because such analyses will almost certainly reveal many bad aspects in the life of the average citizen in China.

So a study upon urban crowding? 禁止的 (forbidden). Paleontology findings? All celebrated with welcoming arms.

I'm sure that had Dr. He been successful in his experiments then he might have found equally welcoming arms from the Chinese authorities despite the immediate worldwide condemnation from outside of China. I suspect that the severity of his punishment for science fraud had a significant additional factor of embarrassing China in the scientific world.


hospitals in China are turning away patients so they don’t have to report new cases, while notices are still being posted at residential areas announcing quarantined due to new cases

none of this is a secret in china itself; everybody there knows that in their country, data means what the party wants it to mean

maybe just this once you could not be an argumentative dick and just admit you were wrong, or maybe just shut up
maurvir Steamed meat popsicle
User avatar
Anyone with the brains God gave the common garden squirrel knows China is lying through their teeth. Their economy is getting hammered like a loose nail with all the quarantining and factory closures, and the good old communist party knows that if it gets bad enough, it could get bad.

I wouldn't trust any statistics about COVID-19 from China any further than I could throw them.
TOS
User avatar
here's a tweet from january 14:

Image

we now know they were fully informed as early as december about the virus, but doctors were ordered to keep their mouths shut and even destroy their records as part of a national coverup
TOS
User avatar
well, rand paul has it now

he of course had no problem getting tested
DukeofNuke FREE RADICAL
User avatar
Is it wrong that my schadenfreude runneth over ?
Yeah, Chinese leadership could lose the mandate of Heaven and that'd be the end of them.
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
juice posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.

I trust them about as much as I trust anything from this regime.

Here's the problem with what TOS wrote: humans are awful at making up statistics.

While politicians might be able to persuade the scientists working for them to try to fudge their reported numbers up- or downward (depending on which way is more politically advantageous), the scientists will know that any such longterm adjustments eventually can be revealed. It might require some heavy duty analysis and it might seem "rather" random especially to anyone outside the topic being analyzed, but just being "rather" random will NOT be good enough to hide such adjustments. If the manipulations are truly random then almost certainly they will NOT satisfy the desires of those politicians applying pressure.

The loss of trust in a dishonest scientist is tough to live down because afterward any public submission by that scientist will be viewed with suspicion if not simply ignored as a waste of time especially considering the volume of material that gets published.


government entities, public and private corporations, the stock market, hell, pretty much everything and everything in that country have a long and thoroughly documented history of lying their asses off about data

i treasure your incredible naive view that it's hard to falsify statistics, i really do, but it has no relevance at all in a place like china

Apparently in his ignorance TOS just does not understand the difference.

Sure, politicians lie. Perhaps proportionately just as many scientists lie but usually not while wearing their science hats.

To submit any paper to any REAL science journal (and unfortunately there are a lot of journals with sciencey-SOUNDING titles), unlike such liars above they must submit them including numbers and/or--at least in fields where numeric analysis is less important--enough details of their experiments such that fellow scientists in their fields at least can mentally replicate the reported experiments if not in reality.

Recall Dr. He who attempted IN CHINA to produce babies which--via gene therapy upon the fertilized egg--should have produced people who had at least a slightly but significantly better chance at resisting HIV infections? Also recall that he got caught lying in his published paper because other scientists in genetic research were unable to replicate his specific gene editing.


oh look, another person with cherished faith in chinese numbers, how adorable, with an insult thrown in

if only i hadn't lived there for a number of years, moved freely in the worlds of journalism, science, technology and especially governance, and gained a thorough understanding of just how deeply, catastrophically corrupt the country is, and oh yeah if only i wasn't in touch with people there right stick fiddling now who are telling me about long lineups outside hospitals, of people dropping dead in the streets, or of longstanding concerns of a corrupt relationship between the chinese government and the world health organization

yes, let's pretend the place isn't so corrupt that a lab tech was arrested not too long ago for surreptitiously selling test animals to local meat markets, or that expensive lab tech routinely goes missing

yeah yeah no it's all good, let's just assume that china as a nation-state is organized along lines similar to those in western countries, let's assume that junk and fraudulent science isn't a problem even in the west, and let's further just insult people who know what the hell they're talking about

great plan!

I just watched NOVA: Mysteries of Sleep. Yeah, it was broadcast a while back and it took me a few weeks to catch up.

Among many interesting things, it included a short segment about how in the study of sleep scientists have found that apparently upon waking the body basically has flushed out any excess of adinosine but then it begins to produce it. Adinosine acts as a sleep inducer upon specific receptors on nerve cells, so the more adinosine in your body, the more sleepy you feel. Caffeine will temporarily bind to these receptors which is why it can be effective for a while to help keep you awake.

What does the above have to with what I wrote about previously in this string? Nuthin', which was my reaction to TOS' post above.

That Mainland China is an authoritarian hell made even more effective in its control over its citizens by modern tech is a frightening prospect even from afar, but what I wrote about were SCIENCE reports. For these the Chinese authoritarians are in a bind: they want to make China look good, but there are lots of topics which--if fully and properly studied--will make China look bad. The authoritarians have at their fingertips tons of personal data covering the entirety of the population in China, but they also would never allow sociologists access to such data for general publication because such analyses will almost certainly reveal many bad aspects in the life of the average citizen in China.

So a study upon urban crowding? 禁止的 (forbidden). Paleontology findings? All celebrated with welcoming arms.

I'm sure that had Dr. He been successful in his experiments then he might have found equally welcoming arms from the Chinese authorities despite the immediate worldwide condemnation from outside of China. I suspect that the severity of his punishment for science fraud had a significant additional factor of embarrassing China in the scientific world.


hospitals in China are turning away patients so they don’t have to report new cases, while notices are still being posted at residential areas announcing quarantined due to new cases

none of this is a secret in china itself; everybody there knows that in their country, data means what the party wants it to mean

maybe just this once you could not be an argumentative dick and just admit you were wrong, or maybe just shut up

Again, another TOS response which is a demonstration that he simply did not read any of my response.
TOS
User avatar
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
juice posted:
TOS posted:
DEyncourt posted:
On her show Rachel Maddow noted that "tomorrow" China will report that for the FIRST day since the pandemic started that the country had NO new cases of COVID-19.

Mind you: according to these timelines for COVID-19, while the first reported case in China happened on November 17, 2019, (though this backtracking was revealed only through analysis), the first public actions started at the end of 2019 but the public denials of there being any problems continued until January 20th. So maybe two whole months between the start of government actions and the virtual control today?

On the other hand today (March 18th) Italy recorded the country's most deaths over a single day: 475. What makes this even more stark is that China had only one day where its collective death toll even broke over 200 while Italy just now has had four successive days when over 300 Italians died (including today).

The Lombardy district has been the hardest hit having over 300 of those 475 deaths. The president for Lombardy has announced that the district's medical system is on the verge of collapse because it had been overstrained by COVID-19.

Meanwhile in fat and happy America, we have six states which have yet to announce ANY rules limiting crowds. This includes Florida and Texas despite their having, respectively, 330 and 223 confirmed cases with 8 and 3 deaths. Of course these numbers are almost certainly severe underestimates, but ya can't stop the party of spring break! W00H00!!! Ya can't let what ya don't know hurt ya!


i don't trust the numbers out of china, not one bit

not. one. bit.

I trust them about as much as I trust anything from this regime.

Here's the problem with what TOS wrote: humans are awful at making up statistics.

While politicians might be able to persuade the scientists working for them to try to fudge their reported numbers up- or downward (depending on which way is more politically advantageous), the scientists will know that any such longterm adjustments eventually can be revealed. It might require some heavy duty analysis and it might seem "rather" random especially to anyone outside the topic being analyzed, but just being "rather" random will NOT be good enough to hide such adjustments. If the manipulations are truly random then almost certainly they will NOT satisfy the desires of those politicians applying pressure.

The loss of trust in a dishonest scientist is tough to live down because afterward any public submission by that scientist will be viewed with suspicion if not simply ignored as a waste of time especially considering the volume of material that gets published.


government entities, public and private corporations, the stock market, hell, pretty much everything and everything in that country have a long and thoroughly documented history of lying their asses off about data

i treasure your incredible naive view that it's hard to falsify statistics, i really do, but it has no relevance at all in a place like china

Apparently in his ignorance TOS just does not understand the difference.

Sure, politicians lie. Perhaps proportionately just as many scientists lie but usually not while wearing their science hats.

To submit any paper to any REAL science journal (and unfortunately there are a lot of journals with sciencey-SOUNDING titles), unlike such liars above they must submit them including numbers and/or--at least in fields where numeric analysis is less important--enough details of their experiments such that fellow scientists in their fields at least can mentally replicate the reported experiments if not in reality.

Recall Dr. He who attempted IN CHINA to produce babies which--via gene therapy upon the fertilized egg--should have produced people who had at least a slightly but significantly better chance at resisting HIV infections? Also recall that he got caught lying in his published paper because other scientists in genetic research were unable to replicate his specific gene editing.


oh look, another person with cherished faith in chinese numbers, how adorable, with an insult thrown in

if only i hadn't lived there for a number of years, moved freely in the worlds of journalism, science, technology and especially governance, and gained a thorough understanding of just how deeply, catastrophically corrupt the country is, and oh yeah if only i wasn't in touch with people there right stick fiddling now who are telling me about long lineups outside hospitals, of people dropping dead in the streets, or of longstanding concerns of a corrupt relationship between the chinese government and the world health organization

yes, let's pretend the place isn't so corrupt that a lab tech was arrested not too long ago for surreptitiously selling test animals to local meat markets, or that expensive lab tech routinely goes missing

yeah yeah no it's all good, let's just assume that china as a nation-state is organized along lines similar to those in western countries, let's assume that junk and fraudulent science isn't a problem even in the west, and let's further just insult people who know what the hell they're talking about

great plan!

I just watched NOVA: Mysteries of Sleep. Yeah, it was broadcast a while back and it took me a few weeks to catch up.

Among many interesting things, it included a short segment about how in the study of sleep scientists have found that apparently upon waking the body basically has flushed out any excess of adinosine but then it begins to produce it. Adinosine acts as a sleep inducer upon specific receptors on nerve cells, so the more adinosine in your body, the more sleepy you feel. Caffeine will temporarily bind to these receptors which is why it can be effective for a while to help keep you awake.

What does the above have to with what I wrote about previously in this string? Nuthin', which was my reaction to TOS' post above.

That Mainland China is an authoritarian hell made even more effective in its control over its citizens by modern tech is a frightening prospect even from afar, but what I wrote about were SCIENCE reports. For these the Chinese authoritarians are in a bind: they want to make China look good, but there are lots of topics which--if fully and properly studied--will make China look bad. The authoritarians have at their fingertips tons of personal data covering the entirety of the population in China, but they also would never allow sociologists access to such data for general publication because such analyses will almost certainly reveal many bad aspects in the life of the average citizen in China.

So a study upon urban crowding? 禁止的 (forbidden). Paleontology findings? All celebrated with welcoming arms.

I'm sure that had Dr. He been successful in his experiments then he might have found equally welcoming arms from the Chinese authorities despite the immediate worldwide condemnation from outside of China. I suspect that the severity of his punishment for science fraud had a significant additional factor of embarrassing China in the scientific world.


hospitals in China are turning away patients so they don’t have to report new cases, while notices are still being posted at residential areas announcing quarantined due to new cases

none of this is a secret in china itself; everybody there knows that in their country, data means what the party wants it to mean

maybe just this once you could not be an argumentative dick and just admit you were wrong, or maybe just shut up

Again, another TOS response which is a demonstration that he simply did not read any of my response.


so more dickish arguing

i guess people just never change
TOS
User avatar
DukeofNuke posted:
Is it wrong that my schadenfreude runneth over ?


i suspect there's a downright schadenfreudequake in your neck of the woods
TOS
User avatar
dv
User avatar
Is it just me or are the rich and famous overrepresented in the illness tallies?

Or is it just that they get to jump the line for tests?
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