Outbreak of Coronavirus

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obvs To hell with toilet paper. I own a bidet
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Total reported infected is less than actual number infected.

The trouble with estimating given current information is that mild cases don't get reported at all. For instance, for a period in early March, I had a cough that every time I would cough felt like I was being kicked hard in the chest. But after a week or so, it stopped. I strongly suspect that it was COVID-19, but it didn't get reported.
TOS
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dv
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TOS posted:


Aren't we already on track to hit that in a week at current numbers, with no slowing in sight?

And that's if rumors about a "bubble" of people who are basically dead already but still on ventilators aren't true.
ukimalefu posted:
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I believe this one is Taiwan, where we've had a total of 3 new cases in the last 8 days, all directly imported.

This was one of many overreactions, but handling here has been so, so good. Our schools are still open and other than more mask wearing and having my temperature taken like 8 times per day life continues as normal.
ukimalefu Canadized
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TOS
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macaddict4life posted:
ukimalefu posted:
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I believe this one is Taiwan, where we've had a total of 3 new cases in the last 8 days, all directly imported.

This was one of many overreactions, but handling here has been so, so good. Our schools are still open and other than more mask wearing and having my temperature taken like 8 times per day life continues as normal.


it's not an overreaction, doing stuff like this is what's kept taiwan so far ahead of the curve
Side benefit is the kids have a shield when the teacher throws chalk at them.
TOS
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oh fiddlesticks me

Quote:
A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day by June 1, a staggering jump that would be accompanied by more than 3,000 deaths each day.

The document predicts a sharp increase in both cases and deaths beginning about May 14, according to a copy shared with The Washington Post. The forecast stops at June 1, but shows both daily cases and deaths on an upward trajectory at that point.

The White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention disavowed the report, although the slides carry the CDC’s logo. The creator of the model said the numbers are unfinished projections shown to the CDC as a work in progress.


i mean we have to be incredibly careful with modeling, as it's based on a pile of assumptions and guesses, but jesus christ these numbers are horrific
juice Inadvertently correct
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Just as states are loosening restrictions. Terrific.
TOS
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because states are loosening restrictions
Kim Stanley Robinson on how "The Coronavirus Is Rewriting Our Imaginations".

This is a longish read, but what would you expect from Robinson? Just a taste from the intro:
Quote:
In mid-March, in a prior age, I spent a week rafting down the Grand Canyon. When I left for the trip, the United States was still beginning to grapple with the reality of the coronavirus pandemic. Italy was suffering; the N.B.A. had just suspended its season; Tom Hanks had been reported ill. When I hiked back up, on March 19th, it was into a different world. I’ve spent my life writing science-fiction novels that try to convey some of the strangeness of the future. But I was still shocked by how much had changed, and how quickly.

Schools and borders had closed; the governor of California, like governors elsewhere, had asked residents to begin staying at home. But the change that struck me seemed more abstract and internal. It was a change in the way we were looking at things, and it is still ongoing. The virus is rewriting our imaginations. What felt impossible has become thinkable. We’re getting a different sense of our place in history. We know we’re entering a new world, a new era. We seem to be learning our way into a new structure of feeling.

TOS posted:
macaddict4life posted:
ukimalefu posted:
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I believe this one is Taiwan, where we've had a total of 3 new cases in the last 8 days, all directly imported.

This was one of many overreactions, but handling here has been so, so good. Our schools are still open and other than more mask wearing and having my temperature taken like 8 times per day life continues as normal.


it's not an overreaction, doing stuff like this is what's kept taiwan so far ahead of the curve

I think some of what has been done is smart, responsive handling. There has also been panicked overreaction, and this is an example of the later. At no point has anyone here recommended anything like this. The MOE and CDC have been very clear in their guidelines for schools. Students are all supposed to be wearing masks or distanced at least 1.5 meters (though it looks like there's at least one student not following that), there are regular temperature checks, and there have not been significant circling cases since the 2 week school shutdown following Chinese New Year.
Added here because of my previous posts:
DEyncourt posted:
DEyncourt posted:
In light of COVID-19, Ticketmaster modified its refund policy.

For postponed/rescheduled events--which previously had been refundable--the company suggests using its own system to resell tickets.

[snip]

Ticketmaster has changed plans for refunds for postponed shows.

This is after receiving heavy criticism for their earlier policy which declared the company would hold onto all money for all shows which had been postponed

"Saudi Arabia Buys $500 Million Stake in Live Nation, Stock Rises".

Live Nation is the parent company of Ticketmaster. Other Hollywood companies have avoided any money--some proposals equally as large--from the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

As one person put it: from now on, each time you buy a ticket through Ticketmaster, you're putting bucks into the pocket of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Bone Saw (who ALLEGEDLY ordered the murder and dismemberment of journalist and Saudi government critic Jamal Khashoggi).
TOS
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macaddict4life posted:
TOS posted:
macaddict4life posted:
ukimalefu posted:
Image

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I believe this one is Taiwan, where we've had a total of 3 new cases in the last 8 days, all directly imported.

This was one of many overreactions, but handling here has been so, so good. Our schools are still open and other than more mask wearing and having my temperature taken like 8 times per day life continues as normal.


it's not an overreaction, doing stuff like this is what's kept taiwan so far ahead of the curve

I think some of what has been done is smart, responsive handling. There has also been panicked overreaction, and this is an example of the later. At no point has anyone here recommended anything like this. The MOE and CDC have been very clear in their guidelines for schools. Students are all supposed to be wearing masks or distanced at least 1.5 meters (though it looks like there's at least one student not following that), there are regular temperature checks, and there have not been significant circling cases since the 2 week school shutdown following Chinese New Year.


believe me when i say most of the world wishes they were taiwan right now
ukimalefu Canadized
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World leaders pledge to fight coronavirus, but the U.S. [and russia] skips the meeting

Quote:
Russia and the United States, onetime superpower rivals in science as well as politics, pointedly did not participate, highlighting the real risk that some wealthy countries could look to control vaccines or treatments to benefit their own citizens first.

TOS
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maurvir Steamed meat popsicle
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TOS posted:


Stuff like this gives me a glimmer of hope for our species. :up:
In something of a followup to previous stories in this thread which I haven't tried to search for.

Recall that case of a Chinese man in Wuhan, China, who was kept in quarantine for weeks after getting through a hospitalization with COVID-19?

About 1-2% of COVID-19 patients can test positive for as long as 70 days following onset.

In contrast nearly all patients will test negative after 2-3 weeks following onset.

This may be due to how some genetic tests can be extremely sensitive to detecting fragments.

It is unclear if anyone with lingering detections are infectious--most have been kept in quarantine until after getting two negative tests on successive days.

-----

Some scientists say that a new strain of coronavirus is more contagious than the original strain from China.

They believe that this strain first appeared in Italy in February and migrated elsewhere including the US east coast, and has become the more pervasive form worldwide.

It is unclear if this more contagious strain is any more or less fatal that the original strain.

It is also unclear if these strains are sufficiently close that immunity to one will mean immunity to the other. In fact we do not yet know if having survived a bout with either strain necessarily will create any kind of immunity in that person, nor what kind of immunity: permanent or limited in time? Early on Dr. Fauci said that (paraphrase) "if I were a betting man, I wouid wager on immunity", but even then he was only guessing based on his knowledge on other coronaviruses.
TOS
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france found a case of covid from december... the patient had never been to china

https://www.sciencealert.com/genetic-in ... e-reported
jkahless Custom Title
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TOS posted:
france found a case of covid from december... the patient had never been to china

https://www.sciencealert.com/genetic-in ... e-reported


I'd be surprised if we didn't keep finding things like this. With the amount of global travel, a novel highly infectious disease is probably always widely spread before it's identified. At least that's what playing Plague Inc. has taught me. ;)
jkahless posted:
TOS posted:
france found a case of covid from december... the patient had never been to china

https://www.sciencealert.com/genetic-in ... e-reported


I'd be surprised if we didn't keep finding things like this. With the amount of global travel, a novel highly infectious disease is probably always widely spread before it's identified. At least that's what playing Plague Inc. has taught me. ;)

While most the rest of Europe was undergoing the last actions of WWI, the nations at war were under at least limited (or worse) news blackouts ("we don't want to give the enemy any comfort by reporting our bad news" went the thinking). The 1918 pandemic was already well underway across Europe but almost all of the flu headlines came out of only WWI-neutral Spain, thus the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic.
On her show last night Rachel Maddow reported that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) had undergone a major transformation by opening of business on May 4th.

Previously IHME had used the assumption that for any given US state that if that state had NOT implemented originally four but now six social distancing measures:
  • educational facilities closed
  • any gathering restrictions
  • stay at home order
  • any business closure
  • all non-essential businesses closed
  • travel severely limited (which has not been implemented anywhere in the US because of constitutional problems)
then that state would fully implement these measures from "today" forward (perhaps excepting the travel restriction). It is somewhat telling that the White House HAD liked to use IHME's charts and numbers--especially their future projections--because they WERE very optimistic.

In making their revision, IHME has conceded that not all states will implement all of the social distancing measures and thus has changed their showing of each of those measures with accompanying timelines showing when that particular measure was implemented AND when they were cancelled. Their projections forward instead will assume that the current social distancing restrictions will remain in effect.

To reflect this refiguring, IHME changed its projection for deaths in the US as a whole by August 1st. Earlier in mid-March it had projected 69 K, but early in April and up until April 29th that projection was increased to 75 K (as I type this the official US number is 71 K). NOW their projection is 134 K.

Funny thing: not only has the White House stopped using IHME's numbers and charts, but the CDC no longer includes IHME's site for the US among its recommendations of sites to visit for more information about COVID-19.

While noting that omission, Maddow asked: "CDC, are you OK?"
macnuke Afar
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CDC is now Corona Distribution Center
ukimalefu Canadized
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maurvir Steamed meat popsicle
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ukimalefu posted:
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Metacell Chocolate Brahma
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cf. gun regulation.
ukimalefu Canadized
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covid19 as a terrorist's bioweapon

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05 ... ergy-rule/

Quote:
In March, Eric Hoffman, president of a local utility workers' union, used an unusual tactic to stop the adoption of a new clean energy building code in San Luis Obispo, a city on California's central coast.

"If the city council intends to move forward with another reading on a gas ban, I can assure you there will be no social distancing in place," Hoffman wrote on March 16, in an email obtained by the Los Angeles Times. "Please don't force my hand in bussing in hundreds and hundreds of wasted off people potentially adding to this pandemic."

City officials say they were shocked by this apparent threat to potentially expose people to COVID-19. But Hoffman got his way. Officials abandoned plans to vote on the controversial new law at an April 7 meeting.



The terrorists won.

Is this the right thread for this post? I don't know. It's game over man.
Huh, I hadn't heard of that. I'll have to check
TOS
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empty disneyworld ... so weird, i was there in february, just days before the lockdown

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DEyncourt posted:
On her show last night Rachel Maddow reported that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) had undergone a major transformation by opening of business on May 4th.

Previously IHME had used the assumption that for any given US state that if that state had NOT implemented originally four but now six social distancing measures:
  • educational facilities closed (51)
  • any gathering restrictions (48)
  • stay at home order (23)
  • any business closure (47)
  • all non-essential businesses closed (11)
  • travel severely limited (which has not been implemented anywhere in the US because of constitutional problems) (0)
then that state would fully implement these measures from "today" forward (perhaps excepting the travel restriction). It is somewhat telling that the White House HAD liked to use IHME's charts and numbers--especially their future projections--because they WERE very optimistic.

In making their revision, IHME has conceded that not all states will implement all of the social distancing measures and thus has changed their showing of each of those measures with accompanying timelines showing when that particular measure was implemented AND when they were cancelled. Their projections forward instead will assume that the current social distancing restrictions will remain in effect.

To reflect this refiguring, IHME changed its projection for deaths in the US as a whole by August 1st. Earlier in mid-March it had projected 69 K, but early in April and up until April 29th that projection was increased to 75 K (as I type this the official US number is 71 K). NOW their projection is 134 K.

Funny thing: not only has the White House stopped using IHME's numbers and charts, but the CDC no longer includes IHME's site for the US among its recommendations of sites to visit for more information about COVID-19.

While noting that omission, Maddow asked: "CDC, are you OK?"

I have added the current count of states plus DC which have implemented each social distancing measure. The four states which do not have any business closures--AZ, KS, MO, SD--also have not closed all non-essential businesses.

I have stricken out my addition to the travel restrictions because for about a month Alaska HAD such a ban BUT it applied to only INTRAstate travel and did not include INTERstate travel thus getting around most constitutional questions. That order was rescinded on April 24th.

Currently only EIGHT states--CA, DE, LA, MD, NY, NC, WA, WV--plus DC have implemented the five other restrictions. While a few states never implemented stay-at-home orders, nearly all of the rest which have rescinded that order plus the non-essential businesses closure did so during May.
ukimalefu Canadized
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The quarantine is NOT really helping the environment.

Quote:
An important thing to keep in mind is that carbon dioxide can persist in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years after it escapes our factories and tailpipes. “It’s like a bathtub and you’ve had the spigot on full blast for a while, and you turn it back 10%, but you’re still filling the bathtub,” says Sublette. “You haven’t really stopped filling the bathtub, you’ve just slowed it a tiny bit.”


Quote:
Ultimately, greenhouse gas emissions need to reach virtually zero by 2050 to avoid worst-case scenarios with climate change, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.


https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/7/21251 ... oronavirus
obvs To hell with toilet paper. I own a bidet
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You know what?

There are times when alarmism is appropriate, and there are times when it isn't.

That article really isn't.

When something happens that does cause a change in the right direction, the right thing to do is to encourage further change in that direction, and not to preach the hopelessness of the situation.
ukimalefu Canadized
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obvs posted:
You know what?

There are times when alarmism is appropriate, and there are times when it isn't.

That article really isn't.

When something happens that does cause a change in the right direction, the right thing to do is to encourage further change in that direction, and not to preach the hopelessness of the situation.


My point of view is that there HAS been a noticeable positive change, proving that it IS possible. But there's still more to do. Hopefully, there will be some permanent positive changes soon enough.
obvs To hell with toilet paper. I own a bidet
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Articles like that, though, I think they dishearten people, and make them give up.
maurvir Steamed meat popsicle
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obvs posted:
Articles like that, though, I think they dishearten people, and make them give up.


This. That was some defeatist BS right there.

Sure, are we turning things around 100%? No. Have we vastly reduced our output? Yes.
TOS
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obvs posted:
You know what?

There are times when alarmism is appropriate, and there are times when it isn't.

That article really isn't.

When something happens that does cause a change in the right direction, the right thing to do is to encourage further change in that direction, and not to preach the hopelessness of the situation.


the "why bother, everything sucks" brand of environmentalism is becoming much stronger these days ... the ridiculous michael moore documentary is a clear example of this
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ukimalefu Canadized
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That there are considerable COVID-19 problems happening at practically ALL meat processing plants across the US shouldn't be a question any more. Many of them by themselves have become the worst hot spots with high levels of infections rampaging through them, and that is only when we can get this info about them.

But of course these plants are NOT isolated. On her show Rachel Maddow has been reporting on how the TOWNS close to them are beginning to see similar spikes as those plant's workers go home to their homes and apartments. There WAS an effort by some governors to place the blame "on the other" considering that most of the low-paid workers are recent migrants from Latin America, so those governors pointed to such things as overcrowding in "those neighborhoods", but more recently they have taken on a new tack: "speak no evil".

While the mayors and city councils and health officials of these little towns housing these workers have been screaming for plant closures and some relief from the burden of treating the more ill COVID-19 victims, some governors HAD promised that would release the numbers of infected as reported by the owners of those plants. Of particular note is Gov. Ricketts of Nebraska. He asked that one such plant in the northeast corner of his state be closed over this past weekend for "deep cleaning" and he promised that tests would conducted upon the workers in that plant, saying that he would issue a report on Thursday. That plant reopened this past Monday.

Thursday came...and Gov. Ricketts explained that these numbers were "a private matter for the company" and that he would not even explain if he got any numbers from the company.

Also very convenient for Ricketts is that the closest sizable town to this particular meat processing plant is Sioux City across the Missouri River in IOWA. Rather Trump-like*, Ricketts can point to the low numbers in Nebraska and proclaim "See? We're doing OK in the state even without a stay-at-home order" while "off-shore" Sioux City sinks in despair.

* Just a reminder of how the Princess Cruise ship Grand Princess was not allowed to dock to offload passengers in San Francisco Bay for several days when a outbreak of COVID-19 happened onboard. Here is Trump explaining himself passing the buck AGAIN).
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Outbreak of Coronavirus

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