Outbreak of Coronavirus

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Séamas
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Post by Séamas »

justine wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:51 am

I know several people that have no intention of getting vaccinated, for various reasons.

I think many are banking on some hope that down the road they can say "I told you so!!" and are willing to risk their health and the health of everyone around them.

And Proteus brought the upright beast into the garden and chained him to a tree and the children did make sport of him.
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Post by Metacell »

Plenty of those types can already put their famous last words on their headstones.

Remember, people, to forgive is divine. In other words, it ain't human.
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Post by DEyncourt »

Dr. Steven Novella on "The Delta Variant".

I believe I got much right in my previous post, but Dr. Novella gives more details on the problems of letting any disease run rampant thus allowing variants to take over.

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Post by DEyncourt »

"The Olympics are so unpopular in Japan that Toyota is pulling all its advertising".

The current estimate for Japan is that only 20% of their population is FULLY vaccinated (vs. 48.9% for the US. There is another 20% within the US who have gotten only one shot in a two-shot sequence).

Two members of the US Olympics gymnastic team have tested positive for COVID. A US member of the US Olympics track team has contracted COVID and will not travel to Tokyo.

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Post by juice »

Why is Japan's rate so low?

/has not read the article yet

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Post by TOS »

a lot of reasons, including the fact that all the vaccines need to be imported and the government botched the purchasing; a severe shortage of medical staffers isn't helping

they've also had very low infection rates, maybe they got complacent

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Post by DEyncourt »

Dr. Novella on the "Neurological Manifestations of COVID.

The best thing is not to get COVID in the first place.

Dr. Novella stresses that we currently do NOT know about any long-term effects of COVID if only because we haven't had any survivors who had more than 1-1/2 years of life after their bout with the disease, but it isn't looking good for a sizable fraction (from 10 [severe] to 80% [slight] depending on the degree of mental disabilities) of those survivors.

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Post by justine »

So, just found out my daughter tested positive. I am so so glad i didn't go to her house last week like i planned. She is/was? anti vax.

"The older i get, the less i care about what people think of me. therefore the older i get, the more i enjoy life."

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Post by DukeofNuke »

I hope she's ok

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Post by justine »

DukeofNuke wrote: Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:14 pm

I hope she's ok

She doesn't sound good and i don't think she's ever been this sick, but she says shes ok. The pediatrician isn't going to test the kids, because "we're going on the assumption they're positive because they live in the same house." She's only had maybe 4 contacts outside her immediate family, and one has already tested positive.

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Post by TOS »

justine wrote: Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:56 pm
DukeofNuke wrote: Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:14 pm

I hope she's ok

She doesn't sound good and i don't think she's ever been this sick, but she says shes ok. The pediatrician isn't going to test the kids, because "we're going on the assumption they're positive because they live in the same house." She's only had maybe 4 contacts outside her immediate family, and one has already tested positive.

god fiddlesticks dammit

the refusal to vaccinate was just in time for the delta variant, and i worry that things could get so, so much worse

hopefully she pulls through unharmed

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Post by justine »

At work, we hadnt had a new case in about 2 months, and now we've had one a week for the last 4 weeks. When they stopped requiring vaccinated people to test at work (unvaccinated still had to test 2x a week and wear a mask), some weren't happy. With the new heath dept mandates requiring everyone to mask up, they changed the policy to allow vaccinated people to test if they want. What kills me is that people are continuing to share food at work, even tho it's no longer allowed and hasn't been since 2020. Vaccinated and unvaccinated bringing food to work to share. Of course, there aren't any consequences so they'll continue.

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Post by Séamas »

I work for a couple health clubs.
Most of the staff and membership are vaccinated, but it looks like we are moving quickly to a vaccine mandate.

Basically, if we go back to a mask mandate, we go back to 30% of our full membership and the business is almost certain to close for good within a month or two.
We had a promising summer and were looking forward to September, when we thought we would get a lot of people to unfreeze their membership.

And Proteus brought the upright beast into the garden and chained him to a tree and the children did make sport of him.
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Post by DEyncourt »

Just a reminder: now that the Delta variant has itself varied to a so-called Delta-plus form which can infect people who had taken the various forms of COVID vaccines, you might tell anyone who HAD contracted COVID--especially in the US before about March 2021--that they should consider getting the vaccine now. While there are some cases of contracting a disease giving that person immunity (sometimes for a lifetime), a COVID-19 infection does not appear to guarantee that AND even worse: the Delta variants apparently can get around some people's vaccinations and thus around any assumed immunities.

The CDC/FDA has yet to approve the Pfizer booster shot for the Delta variants (approval later this month?). I am uncertain if a currently unvaccinated person must get THREE shots--separated by a month in between--or if only two shots will suffice. No news yet on boosters for folks vaccinated with the Moderna shots or the J&J shot or the AstraZeneca jabs, or whether or not those people will gain any benefits/detriments by getting the Pfizer booster.

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Post by maurvir »

Just in time for me to get my second jab tomorrow :(

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Post by obvs »

One of the interesting things to note is that there are two measures of vaccine efficacy.

The first is what percentage of the people who become infected are people who have been vaccinated. This is in the low single digits, as far as what I've read.

The second is what percentage of the people who have been vaccinated have gotten infected. As far as I know, isn't this still less than one percent?

The reason it's worth asking is because it's probably a good idea to consider that with a large enough population, the number of breakthrough infections can be a seemingly significant number, while it also being true that over 99% of the people vaccinated aren't catching Covid(for whatever reason).

And I think that's the more important number. It's worth monitoring the breakthrough cases, but it's important to consider how much an individual can see the vaccine as worthwhile. "Does this protect me?"

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Post by ukimalefu »

Image

1918

They knew what to do over 100 years ago.

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Post by maurvir »

"Do not think you are entitled to special privileges"...

That, right there, is the problem in 2021.

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Post by DEyncourt »

To see a better measurement of how (un)well we are doing in the US as far as COVID is concerned, check out the graphs here but especially scroll down to the end to see the state (and Canadian province) graphs normalized by population. The second graphs which do not normalize for population are somewhat deceptive considering that California can be the states' leader in a number of statistics by far but only because California has by far the largest population (just short of 40 M, a third more than #2 Texas--29 M--and nearly twice over #3 Florida--22 M). We in California also have more Covidiots who have refused to get any vaccines than the whole populations in other states despite having hit about 70% at-least-one-shot vaccination rate (which means roughly 12 M Californian Covidiots which is about the same in population as #7 Ohio which is just under 12 M).

In that fourth set of graphs Florida emerges as #2 in states for new cases based on one week averages (which helps to even out any one-day spikes and drops) with a current 89.6 cases per 100,000 in population topping the state's previous high of 83.8 cases seven months ago at the previous peak of the epidemic, but the surprise #1 is Louisiana with a current 99 cases per 100,000, again topping that state's previous high of 81 cases seven months ago. And those high numbers are especially discouraging considering that those states have reached these peaks only just a month or two following hitting lows of 6.44 new cases per 100,000 in Louisiana and TWO new cases per 100,000 in Florida.

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Post by justine »

I now have 2 family definitely, 2 untested and asymptomatic in that same household, and one untested nd assumed positive because she lives in that household and has most symptoms.

BTW, one of the pos tested neg twice within a week after being exposed, and only tested pos a week and a half after exposure and in the ER.

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Post by DEyncourt »

obvs wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:04 pm

One of the interesting things to note is that there are two measures of vaccine efficacy.

The first is what percentage of the people who become infected are people who have been vaccinated. This is in the low single digits, as far as what I've read.

The second is what percentage of the people who have been vaccinated have gotten infected. As far as I know, isn't this still less than one percent?

The reason it's worth asking is because it's probably a good idea to consider that with a large enough population, the number of breakthrough infections can be a seemingly significant number, while it also being true that over 99% of the people vaccinated aren't catching Covid(for whatever reason).

And I think that's the more important number. It's worth monitoring the breakthrough cases, but it's important to consider how much an individual can see the vaccine as worthwhile. "Does this protect me?"

Unfortunately the answer to both your questions is more like dozens out of every hundred vaccinated due to the Delta variant and its new extensions making their way across the US.

STILL the number of vaccinated people who got breakthrough COVID infections who then required hospitalization drops to well under 1% (and for most of these cases of hospitalization there were questions as to whether or not COVID was the reason why they were sent to the hospital)

On the other hand, based on the data here, it is hard to accurately say what are the chances for an unvaccinated person to go to a hospital due to COVID. The infection rate within the US is somewhere between 520 K and 670 K per day now while the number of ICU beds required for the most ill is now 28 K (compared to July 5th--roughly when the Delta outbreak within the US began--when it was 4.5 K). It isn't as if any patient who gets into an ICU bed will be out the next day. Typically a COVID paitent will require weeks of treatment so it may be that those people who first got into an ICU bed in mid-July are STILL in it now.

For simplicity let's call the current rate 600 K and the rate on July 5th 165 K. If we "estimate" the curve between those dates as a straight line then we guestimate an average of 765 K / 2 = 383 K per day. Over the past 40 or days that means 1.53 M new infections. So compared to 28 K ICU beds now occupied, that means about a 0.2% chance that a recently infected American will be sent to an ICU bed BUT remember: these are overall numbers (meaning covering both vaccinated and unvaccinated).

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Post by obvs »

DEyncourt wrote: Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:47 am
obvs wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:04 pm

One of the interesting things to note is that there are two measures of vaccine efficacy.

The first is what percentage of the people who become infected are people who have been vaccinated. This is in the low single digits, as far as what I've read.

The second is what percentage of the people who have been vaccinated have gotten infected. As far as I know, isn't this still less than one percent?

The reason it's worth asking is because it's probably a good idea to consider that with a large enough population, the number of breakthrough infections can be a seemingly significant number, while it also being true that over 99% of the people vaccinated aren't catching Covid(for whatever reason).

And I think that's the more important number. It's worth monitoring the breakthrough cases, but it's important to consider how much an individual can see the vaccine as worthwhile. "Does this protect me?"

Unfortunately the answer to both your questions is more like dozens out of every hundred vaccinated due to the Delta variant and its new extensions making their way across the US.

STILL the number of vaccinated people who got breakthrough COVID infections who then required hospitalization drops to well under 1% (and for most of these cases of hospitalization there were questions as to whether or not COVID was the reason why they were sent to the hospital)

On the other hand, based on the data here, it is hard to accurately say what are the chances for an unvaccinated person to go to a hospital due to COVID. The infection rate within the US is somewhere between 520 K and 670 K per day now while the number of ICU beds required for the most ill is now 28 K (compared to July 5th--roughly when the Delta outbreak within the US began--when it was 4.5 K). It isn't as if any patient who gets into an ICU bed will be out the next day. Typically a COVID paitent will require weeks of treatment so it may be that those people who first got into an ICU bed in mid-July are STILL in it now.

For simplicity let's call the current rate 600 K and the rate on July 5th 165 K. If we "estimate" the curve between those dates as a straight line then we guestimate an average of 765 K / 2 = 383 K per day. Over the past 40 or days that means 1.53 M new infections. So compared to 28 K ICU beds now occupied, that means about a 0.2% chance that a recently infected American will be sent to an ICU bed BUT remember: these are overall numbers (meaning covering both vaccinated and unvaccinated).

According to the CDC, as of earlier this month, 99.999% of people who have been vaccinated have not had a deadly breakthrough case:

The CDC reported 6,587 Covid-19 breakthrough cases as of July 26, including 6,239 hospitalizations and 1,263 deaths. At that time, more than 163 million people in the United States were fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
Divide those severe breakthrough cases by the total fully vaccinated population for the result: less than 0.004% of fully vaccinated people had a breakthrough case that led to hospitalization and less than 0.001% of fully vaccinated people died from a breakthrough Covid-19 case.

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Post by DEyncourt »

Um, you are quoting from a story dated on August 2nd. Even a week later there had been changes in attitudes especially towards the Delta variants and how they can infect even the vaccinated.

To be sure there are still low numbers for getting any breakthroughs among the vaccinated, and much less for hospitalizations and even fewer deaths. There are current discussions on whether or not any booster shots are required and when. There are some complaints that Americans shouldn't get ANY booster shots as long as the rates of immunization in many poorer countries remain in the single digits.

On the other hand the current vaccines may NOT provide permanent protection but only for months and thus boosters for some or even all vaccinated may become necessary.

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Post by obvs »

I am quoting that story because I hadn't memorized the link to the video where I saw the government rep point out the 99.999% number within the last few days.

But here is video footage from Dr. Fauci from yesterday saying that serious infection is "pretty much exclusively" happening to unvaccinated people.

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Post by macnuke »

https://scitechdaily.com/inescapable-co ... 2-strains/

They saying 100% on all variants. This is one we want to pan out good..

People that do not succeed in politics usually tell the truth too often.

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Post by DEyncourt »

obvs wrote: Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:46 pm

I am quoting that story because I hadn't memorized the link to the video where I saw the government rep point out the 99.999% number within the last few days.

But here is video footage from Dr. Fauci from yesterday saying that serious infection is "pretty much exclusively" happening to unvaccinated people.

Sure, but one of my points is that breakthrough infections can happen in the vaccinated. The vast majority of these will not require anything more serious than staying home for a few days, but EVERYONE who gets anything which involves even "just" a case of the sniffles should NOT "tough it out" and continue going to work. Because COVID symptoms are SO wide ranging, all such cases should be treated as a possible COVID case and NOT dismissed as "it's only just a cold".

Of course there are cases of COVID infections where people had NO visible symptoms. For this reason we SHOULD continue that very annoying COVID testing upon all not even omitting the vaccinated.

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Post by maurvir »

Image

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Post by TOS »

basically, given a choice between a vaccine that's urgently recommended by experts and horse de-worming medication recommended by cranks, a large percentage of people will chose the de-wormer because it's their choice

after generations of brainwashing, the cult of choice has reached its zenith

people are willing to die for their fiddlesticks right to choose

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Post by Metacell »

Free to indulge your worst instincts.

Remember, people, to forgive is divine. In other words, it ain't human.
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Post by juice »

Hopefully they haven't already urinated in the gene pool before making that choice

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Post by DukeofNuke »

TOS wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:35 pm

people are willing to die for their fiddlesticks right to choose

"Give me Liberty, or give me death!" :shrug:

intellectual/hipster/nihilist

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Post by Ribtor »

DukeofNuke wrote: Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:08 pm
TOS wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:35 pm

people are willing to die for their fiddlesticks right to choose

"Give me Liberty, or give me death!" :shrug:

Why not both?

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Post by iDaemon »

I don’t know if folks are saying they they know someone who has passed, but an acquaintance of mine passed in the past couple days. Hospitalized and taken off a ventilator. About 40 yrs old black man, in decent health. May not have been vaccinated but if not probably just fell thru the cracks more than a ‘decision’. I’d say he was a victim of poverty more than anything. Nicknamed after a local public housing project he grew up in. A garrulous dude.

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Post by DukeofNuke »

I met four people last week that told me they had COVID back in December or January.
One was on 4 lpm O2, 24/7. Gasping, he told me that "It messed my lungs up bad."
One was taking dialysis three days a week. Covid had "Tore his kidneys up."
One was blind in one eye; COVID related blood clots.
One was on a walker. She said she was just learning to walk again after COVID "Took my legs away."
I think about them every time I hear/read somebody say, "It's 99% survivable!"

:goth:

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Post by DEyncourt »

There is a story about how some individuals have obtained "super" immunity to COVID and possibly all possible variants.

There is a catch: all such people HAD caught COVID to some degree and then had received a vaccination (so both of the Trumps might have this level of immunity).

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Post by TOS »

sweeping new vax mandate from white house to affect 100,000,000 people

The expansive rules mandate that all employers with more than 100 workers require them to be vaccinated or test for the virus weekly, affecting about 80 million Americans. And the roughly 17 million workers at health facilities that receive federal Medicare or Medicaid also will have to be fully vaccinated.

Biden is also signing an executive order to require vaccination for employees of the executive branch and contractors who do business with the federal government — with no option to test out. That covers several million more workers.

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Post by juice »

Adults in charge.

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Post by Metacell »

How about, I pay you $100, you give one extra dose of vaccine?

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Post by DukeofNuke »

It appears I have awoken in a Hot Spot
Watch this CNN report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScYxxFS9RQ0

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Post by DukeofNuke »

A informative article.

It's hard to disentangle what's most responsible for the rise in breakthrough infections this summer — whether it's the delta variant itself, waning immunity in some people or that much of the U.S. dropped public health precautions such as masking.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ket-newtab

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