Outbreak of Coronavirus

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ukimalefu
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Outbreak of Coronavirus

Post by ukimalefu »

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An outbreak of a never-before-seen coronavirus in the Chinese city of Wuhan dramatically worsened over the last few days—the case count has more than tripled, cases have appeared in new cities, and authorities have confirmed that the virus is spreading person to person.

On Saturday, January 18, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission reported 136 newly identified cases of the viral pneumonia and one additional death. On Tuesday, January 21 (local time 4:18am), the commission reported another death. That brings Wuhan’s totals to 198 cases and four deaths. Just one day earlier, on January 17, the health commission had reported just 62 cases and two deaths.


sorry for this, but it has started
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Not sorry :worriedfrown:

*cough*cough*
Last edited by ukimalefu on Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Betonhaus
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Post by Betonhaus »

Well human waste. There are a lot of Chinese guys at my shop and they likely have close ties to home
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Pariah
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Post by Pariah »

I have been wondering when the Earth's immune response would start.
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Séamas
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Post by Séamas »

I thought acupuncture and rhino horn would prevent this kind of thing from happening there.
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TOS
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Post by TOS »

yeah, let's not over-dramatize, okay? jesus
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Post by juice »

I thought it was cute.
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Post by DEyncourt »

"1st Case Of New Coronavirus Detected In U.S."
Cases of coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, have also been confirmed in Japan, Thailand and South Korea.

.....

The rising international concern about the coronavirus comes ahead of Lunar New Year, a major holiday in China during which millions of people travel across the country and internationally.
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Post by Warin »

TOS wrote: yeah, let's not over-dramatize, okay? jesus

But it’s SARS of the ‘20s!

*runs about like a chicken with his head lopped off*

;)
I'm sorry Dave...
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Pariah
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Post by Pariah »

You should all know that the whole "germ theory" thing is just a Big Pharma lie to get people to buy their fake drugs.
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Post by Kirk »

The most important question is how dangerous it is. That'll determine the appropriate response. Uki's article says four deaths in 198 cases or a 2% fatality rate. This could be a statistical anomaly given the small sample size so far. Note however new viruses tend to be more dangerous until we build up resistance. Also the viruses will evolve to be less fatal over time. Still the current death rate is quite high. The typical rate for flu is 0.2%. So be extra careful.


Here's a few more articles

https://ktla.com/2020/01/21/heres-what- ... ronavirus/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... e-workers/
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Post by macaddict4life »

Actually, while this isn't flu, we learned from the 1918 pandemic that the first wave of a new virus often isn't the most dangerous. It's the second wave that often has the highest fatality rate, and then both the evolution of the virus and the development of immunity serve to reduce the severity of future outbreaks.

Of course, other interesting new factors that haven't been an issue for quite some time include the rejection of vaccines and the epidemics of measles, which tends to wipe out existing immunities and leave people freshly vulnerable to things they had been exposed to.

My wife and I found some last minute deals, mostly to Vietnam and Korean, but haven't yet decided whether we are traveling for Chinese New Year (and even if we do, China isn't on our list). This virus won't make our decisions, but it is one of many factors in the "stay home" column. This time of year represents one of the largest mass migrations of people during the year.
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ukimalefu
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Post by ukimalefu »

macaddict4life wrote: This time of year represents one of the largest mass migrations of people during the year.


That's a great window of opportunity for the army of the 12 monkeys :paranoid:
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Post by TOS »

macaddict4life wrote: Actually, while this isn't flu, we learned from the 1918 pandemic that the first wave of a new virus often isn't the most dangerous. It's the second wave that often has the highest fatality rate, and then both the evolution of the virus and the development of immunity serve to reduce the severity of future outbreaks.

Of course, other interesting new factors that haven't been an issue for quite some time include the rejection of vaccines and the epidemics of measles, which tends to wipe out existing immunities and leave people freshly vulnerable to things they had been exposed to.

My wife and I found some last minute deals, mostly to Vietnam and Korean, but haven't yet decided whether we are traveling for Chinese New Year (and even if we do, China isn't on our list). This virus won't make our decisions, but it is one of many factors in the "stay home" column. This time of year represents one of the largest mass migrations of people during the year.


apparently they're closing off the city of wuhan to prevent people there from travelling during the new year holiday
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Post by Pariah »

Imagine what the death toll of the 1918 outbreak would have been if there had been the global transportation network that we have now.
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Post by TOS »

Pariah wrote: Imagine what the death toll of the 1918 outbreak would have been if there had been the global transportation network that we have now.


it might have been much lower if they'd had our communications, fast reaction and monitoring capabilities
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Post by dv »

TOS wrote:
Pariah wrote: Imagine what the death toll of the 1918 outbreak would have been if there had been the global transportation network that we have now.


it might have been much lower if they'd had our communications, fast reaction and monitoring capabilities


And a flu vaccine.
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Post by justine »

Did you guys see them on the news at the airport there? Digital temp check on everyone arriving.

They have one confirmed case in the US and one potential case in Mexico.
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Post by Kirk »

New data - 9 deaths out of 440 cases. So its staying at about 2% death rate.
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Post by Kirk »

Now its 25 deaths out of 830 cases or 3%. That's close enough to be effectively unchanged.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/china-c ... -rise.html
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Post by ukimalefu »

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TOS
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Post by TOS »

Kirk wrote: Now its 25 deaths out of 830 cases or 3%. That's close enough to be effectively unchanged.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/china-c ... -rise.html


reported deaths

chinese social media is full of terrifying reports of far more deaths

just rumours, of course, but let's face it, the party's top concern is to save face, and lying about numbers has always been a key part of their governance
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Post by juice »

Control of information flow is very important to a certain type of governing. If you can't control the flow, discredit the source as fake news and the enemy of the people.
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Post by TOS »

it's not just top-down, it's widespread

reports of doctors refusing to test patients dying of pneumonia, ordering immediate cremations after death, stuff like that
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Post by TOS »

too dark?

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Post by Betonhaus »

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TOS
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Post by TOS »

don't see how it's connected to all this

although i read that sars was being studied in a lab in wuhan that foreign experts insisted was insecure, only to be ignored by the government
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Post by Betonhaus »

The deadly virus reaserch lab was very close to the frond zero for the infection, leading it to be very plausible that contagious waste was not properly disposed and was eaten by wildlife which was then eaten by humans.
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Post by TOS »

apparently there's a case at sunnybrook hospital in toronto

fun fact: my kids were born there
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Post by Betonhaus »

If there's a case in Calgary I'm screwed because I'm only one or two degrees of separation from the Chinese community here.
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Post by TOS »

viruses don't care about ethnicity, genius
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Post by ukimalefu »

TOS wrote: viruses don't care about ethnicity, genius


Outbreak starts in China

Chinese people are likely to travel to and from China

Contagion risk is increased

But you're not wrong, a perfectly pale, blonde, blue eyed person could have gone and returned from China too. Or any person.
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Post by TOS »

once it crosses borders, ethnicity is irrelevant
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Post by Betonhaus »

TOS wrote: once it crosses borders, ethnicity is irrelevant

Not immediately. A person that travels to and from China is most likely involved with or a part of the Chinese community and will interact with the Chinese community in other countries, making those communities potential sources of infection.
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Post by TOS »

Betonhaus wrote:
TOS wrote: once it crosses borders, ethnicity is irrelevant

Not immediately. A person that travels to and from China is most likely involved with or a part of the Chinese community and will interact with the Chinese community in other countries, making those communities potential sources of infection.


i keep forgetting how knowledgable you are
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Post by Betonhaus »

:squint:
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Pariah
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Post by Pariah »

Imagine being the the Quarantine Zone.
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Betonhaus
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Post by Betonhaus »

Considering that access to food has been restricted I don't think I want to.
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Post by TOS »

not to worry, you're not chinese so you'd be okay
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Post by Kirk »

Its holding at about 2% fatality rate but it seems to spread very easily.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/asia/wuh ... index.html
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Post by jkahless »

TOS wrote: once it crosses borders, ethnicity is irrelevant


To be fair, ethnic enclaving is still a factor in epidemiology, but I'd expect it to be a small one in urban communities.
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