Electric cars are the future

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ukimalefu
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Electric cars are the future

Post by ukimalefu »

And the future is... maybe not now, but very close.

CADILLAC, known for being an all american maker of big cars with big gas burning engines, is making an electric crossover:

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https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/14/1818 ... naias-2019

Haters and deniers, tech will improve and battery life will increase, prices will drop. I say electric cars being the majority of cars on the roads will happen before fully autonomous cars are common, say within 10 years. Not that ICE vehicles will totally disappear, you still see early 20th century cars and motorcycles, owned by millionaire collectors.

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Post by Ribtor »

I strip away the old debris, that hides a shining car
A brilliant red Barchetta, from a better, vanished time
Fire up the willing engine, responding with a roar!
Tires spitting gravel, I commit my weekly crime…
Pyke notte thy nostrellys
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Post by user »

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Aw, he's no fun, he fell right over.

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...so I'm supposed to find the Shadow King from inside a daiquiri?
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Post by ukimalefu »

One day, somebody will remake Christine with a Tesla.

Self driving car gone haywire? it's obvious they will.
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dv
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Post by dv »

ukimalefu wrote: One day, somebody will remake Christine with a Tesla.

Self driving car gone haywire? it's obvious they will.

They've done it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_%28film%29
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Post by user »

Next, Cujo with a robot pet.
Aw, he's no fun, he fell right over.

Science is Truth for Life. In FORTRAN tongue the Answer.

...so I'm supposed to find the Shadow King from inside a daiquiri?
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Post by maurvir »

dv wrote:
ukimalefu wrote: One day, somebody will remake Christine with a Tesla.

Self driving car gone haywire? it's obvious they will.

They've done it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_%28film%29


So, Short Circuit with airplanes - and a sadder ending.
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ukimalefu
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Post by ukimalefu »

dv wrote:
ukimalefu wrote: One day, somebody will remake Christine with a Tesla.

Self driving car gone haywire? it's obvious they will.

They've done it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_%28film%29


I don't know... that's like saying all monster movies are the same.... they're not

shut up
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Post by TOS »

electric cars yes, self-driving cars still a ways off
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dv
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Post by dv »

ukimalefu wrote:
dv wrote:
ukimalefu wrote: One day, somebody will remake Christine with a Tesla.

Self driving car gone haywire? it's obvious they will.

They've done it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_%28film%29


I don't know... that's like saying all monster movies are the same.... they're not

shut up


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It's all the same story.

See also: https://salisburygolem.wordpress.com/go ... m-stories/
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Post by Warin »

Ribtor wrote:
I strip away the old debris, that hides a shining car
A brilliant red Barchetta, from a better, vanished time
Fire up the willing engine, responding with a roar!
Tires spitting gravel, I commit my weekly crime…

:wuv:
I'm sorry Dave...
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juice
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Post by juice »

Warin wrote:
Ribtor wrote:
I strip away the old debris, that hides a shining car
A brilliant red Barchetta, from a better, vanished time
Fire up the willing engine, responding with a roar!
Tires spitting gravel, I commit my weekly crime…

:wuv:

indeed
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Pariah
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Post by Pariah »

The trouble that EVs are going to face is not technical, it is psychological.
Very, very few people actually need a pickup truck but they are the most popular form factor in the vehicle market.
If the car market was ruled by sensible people rationally choosing vehicles that will fulfill their transportation needs cars like the Honda iQ and Smart would be the most popular.
Then there is what I think of as "the 1% problem". EVs are fine for practically all family driving needs but plenty of families make one or two or maybe three long distance drives to go visit extended family 500 miles away or more. Even though it is a relatively rare trip people will consider that they can't do a 500mi trip in 8 hours in a EV because they will need to stop for a charge which takes easily ten to 20 times longer than refueling an ICE.
Range anxiety is a real thing just like people buy big SUVs and Pickups because 4 times a year they go to Home Depot and buy 6 bags of mulch and want to have room.
I think ICE cars will remain in production along side EVs for a long time.
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Post by justine »

Thanks, i'll pass. New batteries, at least for Teslas, run upwards of $20k, and is recommended being replaced after 5 years. A coworker just bought one. I don't want a vehicle that's going to drain my battery with every accessory i use.
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Post by maurvir »

Pariah wrote: The trouble that EVs are going to face is not technical, it is psychological.
Very, very few people actually need a pickup truck but they are the most popular form factor in the vehicle market.
If the car market was ruled by sensible people rationally choosing vehicles that will fulfill their transportation needs cars like the Honda iQ and Smart would be the most popular.
Then there is what I think of as "the 1% problem". EVs are fine for practically all family driving needs but plenty of families make one or two or maybe three long distance drives to go visit extended family 500 miles away or more. Even though it is a relatively rare trip people will consider that they can't do a 500mi trip in 8 hours in a EV because they will need to stop for a charge which takes easily ten to 20 times longer than refueling an ICE.
Range anxiety is a real thing just like people buy big SUVs and Pickups because 4 times a year they go to Home Depot and buy 6 bags of mulch and want to have room.
I think ICE cars will remain in production along side EVs for a long time.


I have considered going with an EV for my commuter car for this reason - it would never go more than about 30 miles from our house. Our main car, though, will likely be ICE powered for this reason. We routinely make 8 hour drives back home and that just isn't going to work with an EV. That said, I will probably get another ICE car for my commuter car because I always buy used and the pricing just isn't there for EVs yet.
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Post by dv »

maurvir wrote:I always buy used and the pricing just isn't there for EVs yet.


blatherskite. Have you seen what used Leafs are going for now?
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Post by dv »

justine wrote: ... and is recommended being replaced after 5 years.


Recommended by who, the National Petroleum Council?

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... how-so-far

overall, the data offer some basis for confidence that a Tesla Model S will lose—on average—less than 15 percent of its battery capacity over the average 150,000-mile (250,000-km) life of a vehicle.


Also, you can extend battery life by not driving like a maniac and not using fast chargers.

justine wrote:I don't want a vehicle that's going to drain my battery with every accessory i use.


Accessories in ICE cars use gas. (They're powered off the alternator which generates additional load on the engine.) Same basic idea: more toys = less range.
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Post by maurvir »

dv wrote:
justine wrote:I don't want a vehicle that's going to drain my battery with every accessory i use.


Accessories in ICE cars use gas. (They're powered off the alternator which generates additional load on the engine.) Same basic idea.


While true, the amount of gas used to power electrical gadgets is infinitesimal compared to the amount of electricity needed to keep the engine running (computers + ignition). Practically a rounding error unless you are doing something pretty intense.
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Post by maurvir »

dv wrote:
maurvir wrote:I always buy used and the pricing just isn't there for EVs yet.


blatherskite. Have you seen what used Leafs are going for now?


To be honest, no. I hadn't really considered Nissan at all.
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Post by juice »

My dad bought a used Leaf. He's very frugal, so I imagine he got a very good deal on it.
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Post by dv »

maurvir wrote:
dv wrote:
maurvir wrote:I always buy used and the pricing just isn't there for EVs yet.


blatherskite. Have you seen what used Leafs are going for now?


To be honest, no. I hadn't really considered Nissan at all.


Nissan makes a nice car in general.

Prices vary based on geography, but <$10k is pretty common. Three of my coworkers have them (one bought his from the first guy, who bought a new one twice, and the third guy bought his used) and all are very happy.

Well, except for the guy who paid cash and didn't get collision insurance, so his front bumper and damaged recharge door will forever bear the mark of his shame.
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Post by obvs »

justine wrote: Thanks, i'll pass. New batteries, at least for Teslas, run upwards of $20k, and is recommended being replaced after 5 years. A coworker just bought one. I don't want a vehicle that's going to drain my battery with every accessory i use.
I have a hybrid, which has two batteries: a small one, like a gas car; and a big one, like an electric car.

My car is a 2006 model year, so it was released in 2005. Its battery lasted 11 years. That was using technology that's 14-15 years old right now.

A new battery for my car was supposed to cost $4,000, but they sold me a new one for $2,000 including installation. If that wasn't an option, it would be possible to replace just some of the cells for significantly cheaper, or to get a remanufactured battery, also significantly cheaper.

We have no idea what kind of other replacements will be available for Tesla batteries by the time you would actually need to replace one, but I wouldn't bet on the $20,000 figure.
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Post by ukimalefu »

Let's say the battery will last X years and the replacement will cost X dollars.

How much would you have expended on gas over that period? oh, wait, you also don't need to replace oil and spark plugs and filters and what not on the electric.

And that's ignoring the benefit to the environment that improves the life of every living thing.

Somebody on the internet must have done that math.
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Post by juice »

ukimalefu wrote: Let's say the battery will last X years and the replacement will cost X dollars.

How much would you have expended on gas over that period? oh, wait, you also don't need to replace oil and spark plugs and filters and what not on the electric.

And that's ignoring the benefit to the environment that improves the life of every living thing.

Somebody on the internet must have done that math.

The calculation isn't quite that clean as you have to consider the electricity being generated to recharge the battery. That method varies by locale, but in my area coal is still a significant portion.
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Post by ukimalefu »

juice wrote:
ukimalefu wrote: Let's say the battery will last X years and the replacement will cost X dollars.

How much would you have expended on gas over that period? oh, wait, you also don't need to replace oil and spark plugs and filters and what not on the electric.

And that's ignoring the benefit to the environment that improves the life of every living thing.

Somebody on the internet must have done that math.

The calculation isn't quite that clean as you have to consider the electricity being generated to recharge the battery. That method varies by locale, but in my area coal is still a significant portion.


viewtopic.php?f=13&t=3372&p=671060&hilit=electric+cars#p671060
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Post by justine »

dv wrote:
justine wrote: ... and is recommended being replaced after 5 years.


Recommended by who, the National Petroleum Council?

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... how-so-far

overall, the data offer some basis for confidence that a Tesla Model S will lose—on average—less than 15 percent of its battery capacity over the average 150,000-mile (250,000-km) life of a vehicle.


Also, you can extend battery life by not driving like a maniac and not using fast chargers.

justine wrote:I don't want a vehicle that's going to drain my battery with every accessory i use.


Accessories in ICE cars use gas. (They're powered off the alternator which generates additional load on the engine.) Same basic idea: more toys = less range.

I don't know what that means, but as far as Teslas go, they use the battery.
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Post by dv »

justine wrote:I don't know what that means, but as far as Teslas go, they use the battery.


Accessories in ICE cars use gas, so it's the same difference.
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Post by TOS »

justine wrote:
dv wrote:
justine wrote: ... and is recommended being replaced after 5 years.


Recommended by who, the National Petroleum Council?

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... how-so-far

overall, the data offer some basis for confidence that a Tesla Model S will lose—on average—less than 15 percent of its battery capacity over the average 150,000-mile (250,000-km) life of a vehicle.


Also, you can extend battery life by not driving like a maniac and not using fast chargers.

justine wrote:I don't want a vehicle that's going to drain my battery with every accessory i use.


Accessories in ICE cars use gas. (They're powered off the alternator which generates additional load on the engine.) Same basic idea: more toys = less range.

I don't know what that means, but as far as Teslas go, they use the battery.


the lifespan of batteries are really great nowadays, that's old information

also: for a regular passenger car, you're likely to spend maybe $20,000 on gasoline through the life of the car

that's on top of repairs, maintenance, consumables (antifreeze, oil, filters, etc)

tesla batteries last much longer than you think, and the next wave of EVs coming out in the next couple of years will last even longer

people have concerns about EVs that are not based on fact ... such as the "range problem" or the battery life question or other stuff like that

in truth EVs are amazing machines nowadays
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Post by justine »

TOS my Tesla knowledge is limited to the coworker that just bought one about a month ago. It's a Model 3 that has 2 batteries or 2 engines. Some human waste like that. It isn't top of the line but i think it's close. `He also paid a lot more for the Model 3 than i thought they cost.
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Post by TOS »

justine wrote: TOS my Tesla knowledge is limited to the coworker that just bought one about a month ago. It's a Model 3 that has 2 batteries or 2 engines. Some human waste like that. It isn't top of the line but i think it's close. `He also paid a lot more for the Model 3 than i thought they cost.


they're still a bit pricey, but the price will drop steadily

and a bit of research discovered that a tesla battery pack will still hold 80%-85% of its charge after 100,000 miles ... on average that's around 7 years, which happens to be the average length of time an american owns a car

so ... basically it's fine
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Post by dv »

Bolts and Leafs are a lot cheaper than anything Tesla is putting out, too.
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Post by Betonhaus »

Ford is making an electric truck. I suspect It will have the horsepower but not the range
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Post by dv »

Betonhaus wrote: Ford is making an electric truck. I suspect It will have the horsepower but not the range

Again, the range thing is an easily refutable concern.

Unless your car lives on the street and you have nowhere to plug it in, which is a thing.
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Post by TOS »

larger vehicles have more range

a startup is taking orders for a truck and an suv with a range of around 650 km
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Post by Pariah »

TOS wrote:
justine wrote: TOS my Tesla knowledge is limited to the coworker that just bought one about a month ago. It's a Model 3 that has 2 batteries or 2 engines. Some human waste like that. It isn't top of the line but i think it's close. `He also paid a lot more for the Model 3 than i thought they cost.


they're still a bit pricey, but the price will drop steadily

and a bit of research discovered that a tesla battery pack will still hold 80%-85% of its charge after 100,000 miles ... on average that's around 7 years, which happens to be the average length of time an american owns a car

so ... basically it's fine

Ya, but that is only part of the story, while the initial buyer might trade a car in at 7 years the average age of cars on the road right now is just over 11 years. Cars used to have an average lifespan of 7 years but that was 20 years ago.
My Mazda is 13yo and drives like it is still new and we just retired our Ford at 20 years old. If Teslas last 7 years that puts them at the bottom of the durability scale relative to other cars.
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Post by TOS »

Pariah wrote:
TOS wrote:
justine wrote: TOS my Tesla knowledge is limited to the coworker that just bought one about a month ago. It's a Model 3 that has 2 batteries or 2 engines. Some human waste like that. It isn't top of the line but i think it's close. `He also paid a lot more for the Model 3 than i thought they cost.


they're still a bit pricey, but the price will drop steadily

and a bit of research discovered that a tesla battery pack will still hold 80%-85% of its charge after 100,000 miles ... on average that's around 7 years, which happens to be the average length of time an american owns a car

so ... basically it's fine

Ya, but that is only part of the story, while the initial buyer might trade a car in at 7 years the average age of cars on the road right now is just over 11 years. Cars used to have an average lifespan of 7 years but that was 20 years ago.
My Mazda is 13yo and drives like it is still new and we just retired our Ford at 20 years old. If Teslas last 7 years that puts them at the bottom of the durability scale relative to other cars.


they don't die at 7 years, the capacity of the batteries reduces by around 15 percent

at the risk of starting a linux-type argument, there's going to be a long overlap period where cheap and reliable ice vehicles will be on the used market

as was pointed out earlier evs hold their value surprisingly well

the used market will adjust, i fail to see that problem
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Post by arkayn »

I want a hybrid SUV that can handle the wasteful roads where I live, but also give me better gas mileage than my current SUV.
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Post by dv »

Pariah wrote:
TOS wrote:
justine wrote: TOS my Tesla knowledge is limited to the coworker that just bought one about a month ago. It's a Model 3 that has 2 batteries or 2 engines. Some human waste like that. It isn't top of the line but i think it's close. `He also paid a lot more for the Model 3 than i thought they cost.


they're still a bit pricey, but the price will drop steadily

and a bit of research discovered that a tesla battery pack will still hold 80%-85% of its charge after 100,000 miles ... on average that's around 7 years, which happens to be the average length of time an american owns a car

so ... basically it's fine

Ya, but that is only part of the story, while the initial buyer might trade a car in at 7 years the average age of cars on the road right now is just over 11 years. Cars used to have an average lifespan of 7 years but that was 20 years ago.
My Mazda is 13yo and drives like it is still new and we just retired our Ford at 20 years old. If Teslas last 7 years that puts them at the bottom of the durability scale relative to other cars.


Image

Given sales rates and the size of the privately owned vehicle fleet, it's pretty clear that cars are lasting 20+ years. If you're in the car business, that's money left of the table.

IMO the "infotainment" gadgets and increasing reliance on computerized blatherskite will do as much as or more than EV batteries to force obsolescence on new vehicles. Some day we will regard 1995-2005 as a golden age for reliable, repairable cars, while we're scrapping our completely "useless" 10 year old EVs.
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Post by ukimalefu »

By the way, the electric Harley-Davidson comes out this year

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Post by Ribtor »

dv wrote:
IMO the "infotainment" gadgets and increasing reliance on computerized blatherskite will do as much as or more than EV batteries to force obsolescence on new vehicles. Some day we will regard 1995-2005 as a golden age for reliable, repairable cars, while we're scrapping our completely "useless" 10 year old EVs.


I agree. People will be sold on the idea of riding around in their phones. The practical catches up with the philosophical. The people's minds are already there, while their body is just waiting to be literally enveloped by their phone.
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